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Yes, folks, I am still alive after a recent stag do involving abseiling, clay pigeon shooting, paintballing and erm, beer.
It was so nice to see old school friends again and we all had one thing in common. To use horseracing parlance, we were all carrying a little bit of overweight. It looked as if we had all installed a small cushion under our shirts.
Yes, good ol’ middle aged spread. Love handles, call it what you will. Alas, my days of becoming a late entry jockey seem all but over.
Still, a great day was had by all and it was a great send off for the stag.
Back to normality, and the small matter of an important head to head footy match with my 6 year old nephew.
Final score 8-7 to him. And plenty of opportunities to trade in running on this particular match. The game had to be abandoned because he wanted an ice-cream. It was just like the Premiership.
My focus this week again has been purely, from a betting perspective, with live market reading. I hope those who have followed the live chat have benefited greatly. They will have noticed the following I am sure. If you want to know how to bet on the horses, there are two key elements to success:
-patience
-flexibility
How patience and flexibility are important tools when placing a bet on the horses
Patience? Why?
Well, some races are simply not betting mediums, and this week has been a frustrating one because of the sprint handicaps and maidens with loads and loads of debutants. Yes, there may be horse races, and NO! We don't have to bet on them all.
Flexibility? Why?
Well, I have the tools to read the live betting markets, such as the Smoke and Mirrors, 16/1 system, and Betfair graphs, and while some races throw up some live market betting signals, we do need discretion. We need to gauge the race types because although there may be signals, these signals may arrive in races where ALL of the horses are newcomers, or the betting market indicates a small field with the odds suggesting a very very tight race. In the live environment, I use dutching in certain circumstances, place only betting in others, and each way betting in others.
We also need flexibility in our choice of bets -
It's a great learning experience and I hope shows those who have followed the live chat that following the racing live is the IDEAL if you want consistently big priced winners. And there have been some this week. The one that stands out is a horse called Priest Field which involved a little bit of Miss Marple work.
Well, I noticed that Priest Field was 40/1 in the betting forecast in the Racing Post. The horse was showing at a steady 20/1 in the live market (the 16/1 system in action).
And here's the clincher
The horse was ridden by a jockey claiming 7 lbs.
Why was this the clincher?
Well the form of the horse indicated that he must have been ridden previously by Rik Waller giving Phil Jupitus a two-up.
This 7 lb claimer was a clue that the trainer wanted the horse to carry as little weight as possible. Couple this with the potential gamble and - HEY PRESTO! - Priest Field won at 20/1
Coincidence? NOPE. £2 each way stakes returned £57 -NICE!
This has been the highlight for the live chat this week, given the poor racing I have had to wade through.
So if you want to learn about reading the live betting markets, the live chat is free and available here, UNTIL I get accosted by my nieces or nephews, or end up shooting pigeons made of clay!
From a one-a-day perspective, the live betting environment means at times, I can sniff out a better one-a-day selection than the "official" one on the blog. New information may reveal itself in the live betting market which makes an "official" losing day a winning day because of an earlier selection which may have become stronger because of late non runners perhaps, or very pronounced market confidence.
Handicap gold
Elsewhere, handicap gold trialists seem to be finding the change to focusing on the + horses to be of great benefit, and, more importantly, highly profitable.
Do any of the current handicap gold trialists have any feedback? If so, please do get in touch.
Are you finding the service profitable? Is there any area where you think there could be improvement?
I have a bbq tomorrow afternoon so, unless it rains (and remember this is Guernsey and NOT Ireland) then there will be no live chat tomorrow.
System updates will arrive when I return to Ireland. The focus while in Guernsey is on live market race reading and the experience gained from focus solely on this will benefit you greatly when I get it all down in writing.
I'm off now to go to the dubious goals committee. One of my 6 year-old nephew's goals involved the ball going OVER the jumper we used as a goalpost. It's important. It would have been 7-7 instead of 8-7!
Wish me luck
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