Well, what a weekend that was.
I sounded like Joe Pasquale after his voice started to break this week, after shouting my lungs out in support of Ireland against the All Blacks. My voice box was very much crouch, touch, paused and engaged!!
It was my first Rugby International and my first visit to the Aviva Stadium, and now I know why watching sports live is so popular. A wonderful match up until the 37th minute when Ireland were winning. Then the All Blacks got busy.
And I got busy tasting the freshest Guinness in the World, directly at the Guinness Brewery and, man, that was an experience!
Back down to earth this week after that great weekend and there are a couple of betting related things and sports betting tips I'd like to mention this week.
I could have waffled on and on and on about the rugby weekend but then my publisher would send out a sniper to shut me up!
Why playing the probabilities is a solid betting tip – applicable to any sports
In previous eletters I have spoken about niche betting in horse racing where I have focussed on each way betting in 8 runner races, or on looking for enough negatives in 2 year old maiden races to enable us to lay the favourites.
And here is another niche.
There is a characteristic specific to national hunt racing that the more speculative amongst you might like to take advantage of, and that is the number of small fields in jumps races.
These examples will highlight this well:
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Finian´s Rainbow, 9/4 Sang Bleu, 11/2 Hell´s Bay.
DIOMED VERDICT: FINIAN'S RAINBOW gets slight preference over Sang Bleu.
3 horses in this race. 1 will win and 2 will lose. Now let us look at the place only betting market.
3 horses in this race. 2 will place and 1 will not.
Now do you see? We have a greater probability of success here than failure if using the Betfair place only market.
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Another Trump, 9/4 Morning Sunshine, 3/1 Clouseau, 5/1 Arctic Ben.
This is a 4 horse race, but one non runner makes it a 3 runner race. Now these 3 horses were all priced between 7/4 and 2/1 meaning they could not be split. Again it is a case of 3 horses and 2 places. Pure probability isn't it.
So add these races to your niche lists. Try the win market by all means, but do make note of the place only markets as the probabilities of you winning are wholly in your favour.
Did you know that cricket is one of the best sports in which to trade on Betfair? No me neither, until I attended that Betfair Trading Course in October.
And with the Ashes upon us, now is an ideal opportunity to look at the Betfair Trading Graphs for the First Test and there is one thing that you will notice. And that is volatility!
And Volatility is the trader's bestest friend in the world - ever!
Look at England's graphs. England started at 2.5, hit a high of 8.5, dropped down in increments (most likely reactions to wickets going down), settled again at 2.5 and is currently around 4.5
Australia's market has been quite tight to be honest. They began the First Test at just below evens (2.00 decimal odds), hit a high of 3.25, then dropped markedly back to where they started, rose again, then dropped considerably to around 1.3 only to settle at 1.53 currently.
And how about the draw? Well the draw began at around 2.5 and is currently running at 8.6.
Is this trend likely to continue? Are England layable away from home at the beginning of the 2nd Test? In a match as prestigious and high profile as the Ashes, will the draw remain layable as its price is more likely to rise than to fall?
After all, if we are going by current trends, the Aussies's price band is tight for the trader, but England hit a high of 8 from a starting point of 2.5, as did the draw!
I am afraid that I am not a cricket expert, but I am sure that the Ashes is so popular that there are any number of resources in which you can do your research.
Here http://betting.betfair.com/cricket/ashes-betting/ is as good a place to start as any for your research.
And why not use the training mode at Racing Trader's www.racingtraders.co.uk Bettrader EVO and try out these ideas. Laying the Draw looks instinctively the best trading option to me, as we should have no concerns as regards weather.
It is a real pity you will have to go without sleep for the duration of the Ashes if you want to be a trader this year. Still, if possible take a look at the trading graphs, wait for the 2nd Test, and take an opinion. Will the draw price rise again as it has thus making it tradeable?
Is there any leeway to be had in actually laying Australia and England initially? One will obviously rise, but look at the first Test - both teams' prices rose to allow a trade on both sides.
Do prices fluctuate more for the team batting, or the team fielding?
The answer to this final question could really help formulate a trading strategy.
All interesting stuff indeed.
And don't forget the tennis!
Tennis is also a superb sport for the Betfair trader, as volatility is another issue. I like laying ultra short priced players in in play matches. Why? Because the downside is minimal but the upside is unending!
And in something like the ATP World Tour Finals, we have the best of the best, and a hope, therefore, that favourites are vulnerable.
If all this trading sounds like gobbledygook to you, then get in touch with me.
It is a new version of punting, really, and one where you can either "sell" your initial bet off when you are in a winning position rather than waiting for the end of the match for a pay out, or you can enter a cricket match, tennis match or football match with a pre-determined plan of action and with solely trading in mind.
For example. Spurs played Werder Bremen mid week. My research hinted at goals here. I backed over 2.5 goals at 1.49.
Spurs scored within 6 minutes. The 1.49 back price reduced to 1.21. Now you can sell your bet back by laying at 1.21, having backed at 1.49.
It is all a matter of decision-making. A bettor would have stayed in the bet and, on this occasion been successful as Spurs took a 3-0 lead. A trader would be out after the first or 2nd goals.
Plenty to mull over for the coming week. This trading malarkey can be very profitable if we focus on the volatile markets such as football, cricket and tennis. And do look out for those niche horse races.
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