The focus on laying short priced horses has produced what I like to term “ reference” eBooks such as False Favourites as far as horse racing is concerned.
Excellently written and perfectly suited to “building a case to oppose” but these eBooks have one problem, and that is that you need to make an investment in time to go through the thorough processes needed to find a solid lay at low prices.
Is there a quicker way?
Well I think there is. Perhaps a focus on football instead?
After all, we only have two teams’ “form” to check out rather than reams of horses and their form. And here in this article I will focus on football, for there are occasions where an argument can be made to lay a very short priced football team who the bookmakers may have priced up too short.
Building a case for a short priced football season
With the football season come to an end now, and with the general theme of this newsletter being on football, how can we sniff out a football team at very short odds who have a good chance of drawing or even losing if we lay them (remember the advantage of laying with football is that we can cover the draw – it is effectively two bets).
Here are some areas I focus on regarding short priced football teams that I consider when seeking to oppose:
• CIRCUMSTANCE – incentivised to win or not?
• HEAD TO HEADS AGAINST THE OPPONENTS – potential bogey team?
• SHORT PRICED TEAM’S PERFORMANCE AGAINST THOSE TEAMS NEAR THEIR OPPONENTS IN THE LEAGUE TABLE.
• RECENT FORM FOR HOME TEAM AND RECENT FORM OF AWAY TEAM BOTH HOME AND AWAY.
(1) CIRCUMSTANCE
Can include time of the year (read the trading article re Barcelona – won La Liga – Champions League Final looming – nothing to play for).
Can include “dead rubber” games – again, generally end of the year, or include games which are prior to big Cup competitions.
Is this a must win, to either qualify for Europe, or avoid relegation, or win a league FOR EITHER TEAM?
Is this a Cup game (the kind of Cup that big teams generally don’t take seriously and thus put out 2nd string sides).
(2) HEAD TO HEADS
It is good to see how the two teams have done already this season, and historically. Some teams are just bogie teams for short priced favourites, for whatever reason. You will normally notice this historically – draws prevail, or tight 1-0 victories.
(3) SHORT PRICED TEAM’S PERFORMANCE AGAINST THOSE TEAMS NEAR THEIR OPPONENTS IN THE LEAGUE TABLE. SIMILARLY, OPPOSITION SIDE’S PERFORMANCE AGAINST THOSE TEAMS NEAR THEIR OPPONENTS IN THE LEAGUE.
Has the short priced team found it easy or difficult against teams who are at a similar level to the opposition they face today? For example, some teams find it difficult to get a result against bottom sides for some reason.
Has the bigger priced team performed well against teams in the same part of the league table as their short priced counterparts (see Hamburg v Koln below).
(4) RECENT FORM FOR HOME TEAM AND RECENT FORM OF AWAY TEAM BOTH HOME AND AWAY (also HOME? AWAY form in general season-wide and form in last six to ten games (be they home and away games) Like the horse racing, are the teams in form or faltering slightly?
These are the four main criteria I look at when considering building a case to oppose a team priced to canter through the game.
IN PRACTICE
Check out the real life examples below and see how I formulate my decision making based on any one of the above four pointers or all four pointers. I have numbered these pointers (1), (2), (3), (4) to coincide with the four pointers above and will bracket them next to the real life examples below:
17/5
13:00 Augsburg vs. Wehen 4/11
Why is a team who are only 10th in German 2nd division, and who have only won two of their last 15 games, 4/11? Well, because they’re playing the bottom side who have only won five all season. But caution! Wehen have only lost by 1-0 recently and drawn 2 0-0’s 10 draws this season. (4)
RESULT 1-1
Look below at this table from www.soccerstats.com. Would you back a side at 4/11 that is 11th in the league? NO? Me neither! ( See FIG 1)
13:00 Hibernian vs. Celtic 6/1 10/3 4/9
What I like to call an “incentivized” team – Celtic must win with Rangers winning yesterday (1)
1 point lead at the head of the table, Rangers look go have a goal in hand after today’s match.
Celtic away have won 1 (Rangers) drawn 2 and lost 2 against teams in the top six away from home. This includes a 2-0 defeat last time they were at Hibs. (2) (3)
Last 11 games have seen five draws and six wins. They must avoid a draw today and take maximum points
Four wins, two losses and three draws in Hibs last nine home games include that 2-0 win over Celtic. (4)
Whenever an Old Firm team are NOT quoted at 1/3, 1/4, 1/5 then it is usually a sign of a hard fought victory or draw with the opposition having a chance to score
RESULT 1-1
Again, by clicking on “Scotland” under “National Leagues” then clicking on the team of your choice (in this case Hibernian), we can see, at www.soccerstats.com, that Hibs recent form is strong – four draws and two wins in their last seven matches formed the basis of my decision making. (See FIG 2)
14:00 Juventus vs. Atalanta 1/4
5 score draws at home this season (4), Five 1-0 wins at home this season too, and two losses out of 17 matches is not much of a record to be 1/4 shots (4), but again we return to INCENTIVES! Third in the league, they will want a win to confirm status for Europe next term. (1)
Atalanta have not won away from home to any of the top eight sides, drawing only one of those games
They have nothing to play for.
Recent away form, one loss, one win and 2 draws could show they can be tight away from home, but you have to ask “what do they have to play for?” (4)
RESULT 2-2. Atalanta actually went 2-0 UP!
[INSERT TABLES]
Thanks to www.soccerstats.com, I noticed the number of games that Juventus had drawn recently, including their last three at home before drawing again home to Atalanta. Hence the reason I wanted to oppose Juventus. (See FIG 3)
16/5
14:30 Hamburg vs. Koln 1/4
Rock solid at home. (4) Have only lost to top of the league and drawn 2. Hamburg I think are out of contention for the title but could be in with a shout of 2nd or 3rd and Europe. (1)
Beat Koln at their place 2-1.
Home form is what has kept Hamburg going
Koln have lost eight of their last 10 (4)
Away to top five have managed wins at Bayern and Stuttgart so this must be accounted for. ( 3) 1.3 to win
RESULT – Hamburg lose 1-0. The key determinant here was Koln’s strong form against top of the table sides. Look on previous page at Koln’s away results to Bayern Munich and Stuttgart – a 2-1 win and 3-1 win (care of www.soccerstats.com). (See FIG 4)
17:00 Roma vs. Catania 1/4
Recent poor form for Roma (4) – where is their motivation? (1) Lost at Catania 3-2 (2) so could be another tightish game for late breakthrough goal?
Final score 4-3 to Roma, BUT the game was 3-3 until the 90th minute allowing us to trade in-running on our lay of Roma.
Indeed this game was 1-1 for a short time, and as you read in the trading article, the prices fluctuate, especially for a side priced 1/4. (See FIG 5)
Bottom line
There are four basic pointers to look at when gathering evidence to back or not to back (if we wouldn’t back a 1/4 shot, then why not lay it! Liabilities are de minimis and, if the match is inrunning, we may have a tradable opportunity).
Other pointers include the price of the team.
Look at Celtic’s match. Celtic and Rangers are normally priced at 1/3, 1/4, 1/5 and if they are priced bigger, this is usually the bookmaker’s way of telling you that this is not as comfortable as usual. (Again, I draw your attention to Barcelona at 2.32 in my main trading article – followers of Barcelona season long will know they are very rarely priced above 1/2 – let alone 2.32 (over evens!) in a La Liga match, so formidable is their ability.
This sharp rise in price is a great signal that the bookmakers do not expect the usual rout!
A step-by-step process
Go to www.ladbrokes.com and click on their football coupon and make a note of all games where one team is priced ultra short (1 /4, 4/11, 1/3, 1/5 – I rarely chose 4/9 or 1/2).
Go to www.soccerstats.com and look at the four pointers I have mentioned in this article.
If the league you are looking for is not at www.soccerstats.com, go to www.betdevil.com and click on “matches” and in the drop down box “leagues”. Go to that country’s league and click on the match you want.
You can garner some great information from this ratings site, although not as detailed and “clean” as www.soccerstats.com.
The ideal, once you have done your research, is to lay the short priced team IN-RUNNING, allowing you to trade during 90 minutes (remember Roma actually won in 90 minutes BUT the game was 1-1 and 3-3 for nearly 20 minutes allowing you to actually profit from your lay!).
As you can see, there are many Europe wide examples throughout the season of short priced football teams whose price undervalues the strengths of the opponents.